Category Archives: media

Reading the Constitution: Democrats Lose Again

So, today was the big day when the U. S. Constitution was read into the congressional record. This was preceded by a discussion of which parts, exactly, would be read. It was agreed that they would not read those sections of the Constitution that had been made irrelevant by amendments. That means, for instance, that they did not have to read all of the stuff about slaves.

And so, the Democrats lose again.

Why? Because the game being played here by the Republicans is part of the new Constitution-as-sacred-text push that is being fueled by the tea partiers. The founding fathers (sorry, I mean Founding Fathers) are being cast as infallible geniuses who set down immutably true principles of governance. Then, they can oppose any policy or piece of legislation on the moral principle that it is not what the Founding Fathers would have wanted.

The problem with reading the abridged Constitution is that it takes something that is a living, evolving entity and casts it as fixed. If the congress had read out all of the parts about slaves being three fifths of a person, and then read out the amendments abolishing slavery, the effect would have been the opposite. They would have emphasized that the Constitution as a document was not infallible. It would have emphasized the notion of the Constitution as a process.

The founding fathers were clever. They got a lot of things right. They also recognized that they were not going to get everything right, and that times and values would change.

I wish that they had read the entire Constitution into the congressional record. I am moved not by an America in which the government is something that we revere, but by an America in which the government is something that we do.

Spokeo: Protection Racket, or just Doucheracket?

So, I’m reading teh Boing Boing the other day, and they have this article about Spokeo, which I assume is having a burst of coverage right now because its founder, Harrison Tang, was just elected Grand Sucktard of Douchebekistan.

This is a “service” where you can type in your name (or presumably the name of someone you want to rob, terrorize, and/or murder), and it will show you a satellite image of their house, along with a bunch of personal information about things like number of children and estimated wealth.

Just how much of a wankwad is this Tang dude? As Boing Boing point out, “Tellingly, Mr. Tang opted out of his own site over privacy concerns.”

A full set of instructions on how to opt yourself out can be found here. I clicked on the privacy button, and was greeted by the statement that “Spokeo cares about data privacy.” You can then have yourself removed from Spokeo’s public searches (although presumably not from their database) “for free.”

BUT, they are quick to point out, YOUR PRIVACY IS STILL AT RISK!!1!11! Your information will still be available through other sites, and you will have to contact them “one-by one . . . to protect your online identity.”

Fortunately, the heroes at Spokeo have “partnered with” the company “Reputation Defender,” which will protect your online identity for a modest fee. What I’m wondering is, what’s the deal with that? Is that Spokeo’s actual business model? How is this any different from having the guy who threatens your family “partner with” Vito Corleone?

I’m not breaking any news here. I just wanted to post something because I thought that the protection-racket aspect of this whole thing did not receive enough emphasis in the article by Boing Boing’s Xeni. Not a complaint, as that article had a somewhat broader point, and is a great read for anyone interested in online privacy issues.

Also, I had about a million HILARIOUS ways to misspell “Harrison Tang”, but then decided to spare you.

From Friendster to Wikileaks: In Defense of Oversharing

So, I assume that by now you’ve heard about how Wikileaks is run by traitorous, anarchist terrorists who hate freedom. This is not going to be a post about how the US government’s knee-jerk overreaction, its moronically overinflated rhetoric, or its Orwellian attempts to control what government employees can do in their own homes. You can probably guess my opinions, and others have written on the subject more knowledgeably and compellingly than I would.

I want to write about oversharing more generally.

I’m part of the generation that has spent much of the past five years hand-wringing and tooth-gnashing about how kids these days are posting pictures and videos of themselves drunk and naked, or with their mouths on things that – if only for hygienic reasons – mouths really shouldn’t be on. We worry in print about these kids’ futures. What will happen when a prospective employer or prospective spouse types their name into google twenty years from now? We worry that they fail to understand the consequences of youthful indiscretion in an age where every action is recorded and broadcast.

Don’t get me wrong. I love my generation. Someday, when Ryan Seacrest is the NBC news anchor, he will hire James Frey to ghost-write a book about us called The Most Greatest Generation Ever! But somehow I feel that history will look back on us like the people who fretted about blue jeans, rock and roll music, and comic books. At least, I hope that is true.

I hope that the next generation, immersed as it is in oversharing, learns to admit that people are, well, human. The thing is, everyone does and says stupid things. Everyone always has. Yet, somehow, we’ve painted ourselves into this corner where we all have to pretend to be perfect (at least along certain, critical axes) in our public personas. People who aspire to politics carefully guard what they say for years, so as not to create a sound byte that can be used by their opponents. And somehow, we and the media jump on the bandwagon to vilify people for past indiscretions – even for things that we’ve done ourselves.

The result is that we have a country run predominantly by two sets of people: those who efficiently and ruthlessly fictionalize their own pasts, and those who have lived so carefully that you begin to question the extent to which they have lived at all.

I have done and said stupid and offensive and hurtful things. Am I proud of them? Of course not. But I hope that I have become smarter and better and kinder, and I hope to continue to become smarter and better and kinder in the future. Maybe if everyone’s flaws and mistakes are cataloged on the internet, we can recognize that people are complicated and dynamic. Maybe we can learn to judge people based more on who they are and who they may become, rather than on random, isolated snapshots of who they were at some point in the past.

This is not a relativist argument. I believe that there are good people and bad people. I just think that we would all do a better job of identifying them if we did not have to place so much weight on the little slivers that leak out of the carefully constructed public shells.

The same argument goes for Wikileaks. The US government was embarrassed by the leaking of documents from the state department. Why? I honestly have no idea. Was anyone really surprised that internal memos spoke in frank terms about goals and objectives, about other countries and leaders? Was anyone really surprised to learn that the US uses its political muscle to promote the agendas of US corporations? Does anyone doubt that most of this is fairly vanilla behavior in the world of international diplomacy?

In a world filled with classified documents, fictions develop and take on a life of their own, spinning off their own morality. Governments pretend to be high-minded and moral, which turns out to be somewhat inconsistent with many of the things that real governments need to do in the real world. Then, something leaks out about some government activity, everyone pretends to be surprised and outraged, no matter how trivial or justifiable the infraction. Sometimes the infraction is only against this weird, artificial, fictional morality. But when the response is to enhance secrecy, to reinforce the fiction, it creates the opportunity for the government to do things that truly are horrific.

I have not spent a lot of time looking through the the latest Wikileaks documents, in part because most of them seem dreadfully boring. I’m glad that there are people who are reading these documents, pulling out the interesting bits, and cataloging them. It is conceivable to me that there will be pieces of information here and there that demand immediate action. However, my greater hope is that Wikileaks and its successors will allow us to make our peace with the messiness of government and diplomacy, so that we can focus our outrage on the big infractions.

Some of the Afghan leaks revealed certain atrocities, like the killing of civilians. Most of the reactions that I saw were some version of “It’s just a few bad apples,” “Leaking this will ruin our relationship with the Afghans,” or “America is evil,” all of which miss the point. I believe that the point should be that when you take tens of thousands of kids, some just barely out of high school, and put them halfway around the world in hellish conditions, bad things are going to happen. At some frequency, civilians, including children, are going to be killed. We need to focus on training and policies that keep those incidents to an absolute minimum. AND, we need to understand that this is a part of war, and part of the reason that military intervention needs to be the option of last resort. Secrecy leads to the romanticization of war. Currently, it seems that each generation has to rediscover the horrors of war for itself. Maybe additional transparency would let us hang on to those lessons for longer.

I was not in favor of Rand Paul (although his election has the silver lining of future comic potential), but I would have liked to see the media coverage focus more on his opposition to civil-rights legislation, and less on college pranks involving the “Aqua Bhudda.” Maybe the future will contain copious footage of every Senate candidate being young, naked, and drunk. If we become desensitized to the salaciousness of it all, perhaps the media will cover the substantive philosophical and policy issues that distinguish the candidates.

The future that I am hoping for is not an entirely comfortable one, especially for those of us who came of age before the camera-phone panopticon. But, I want to trust the next generation to turn overshared lemons into lemonade.

In Arthur Miller’s A View from the Bridge, the protagonist, Eddie Carbone lives with his wife, Beatrice, and his niece, Catherine. They house two of Beatrice’s cousins, who are are in the country illegally for work. When Catherine falls in love with one of the cousins, Rodolpho, Eddie’s romantic desires toward his own niece are revealed, and, acting out of jealousy, he turns the cousins over to immigration. The other cousin, Marco, has a starving family back in Italy, and deportation spells disaster for him. Eddie’s betrayal of the cousins ruins him in his community and his family. In the end, Eddie and Marco fight in the street. Eddie pulls a knife, but dies after then knife is turned on him.

The family lawyer and narrator, Alfieri, closes with this:

Most of the time we settle for half and I like it better. But the truth is holy, and even as I know how wrong he was, and his death useless, I tremble, for I confess that something perversely pure calls to me from his memory – not purely good, but himself purely, for he allowed himself to be wholly known and for that I think I will love him more than all my sensible clients. And yet, it is better to settle for half, it must be! And so I mourn him – I admit it – with a certain . . . alarm.

The flux capacitor in your brain

So, you already know that Friday was the 55th anniversary of Doc Emmett Brown’s falling off his toilet, hitting his head, falling unconscious, and coming up with the flux capacitor, which not only allowed Teen Wolf to make out with Caroline in the City, but is singlehandedly responsible for the fact that anyone still remembers what a DeLorean is. How do I know you know? Because you spent all week baking this cake.

It took the good doctor thirty more years to get his idea working, so that time travel first became practical in 1985. However, it turns out that, as usual, natural selection got there first. There is an article in press in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology that presents experimental evidence for precognition or time-reversed instances of causation. The preprint is available here, from the website of the author, Daryl Bem.

Bem is fairly well known, particularly for his early work in social psychology on the “self-perception theory of attitude change,” which is basically that we learn about ourselves in much the same way that someone else might. For instance, say I hate peanut butter sandwiches. But then I eat a peanut butter sandwich every day for a month. I then look at myself, and say, “Hey, that handsome fellow really seems to like peanut butter sandwiches.” This is the academic basis of that damn Stuart Smalley sketch. He is also responsible for the “Exotic becomes erotic” theory of the formation of sexual orientation.

The paper presents the results of nine experiments, each of which tested for awareness of future events. In the first experiment, subjects were told that there was a picture behind one of two (virtual) curtains, and they were supposed to guess which one. When the picture was just a picture, they picked the right curtain 49.8% of the time, which was not significantly different from the expected 1/2. But, when it was an EROTIC picture, they picked the right picture 53.1% of the time, which, while not particularly overwhelming, is apparently statistically significant at the p=0.011 level. There are eight more experiments on retroactive priming, precognitive avoidance of negative stimuli, and retroactive habituation and induction of boredom. The article also includes discussions of random number generators, pseudorandom number generators, quantum mechanics, and Alice in Wonderland.

So, if you read to the end of this blog post in the hopes that I would tell you what the hell is going on here, I’m afraid I’m going to leave you disappointed. Although, to be fair, your precognitive boredom should have known that I would have nothing intelligent to say sometime around the slash-fic link, in which case you’ve long since moved on. I’ll just lay out the obvious candidates. First, it’s pure chance, although getting consistent results across nine experiments makes this seem not terribly likely. Second, these are nine of a much larger number of experiments, most of which did not conform with the experimenter’s expectations, and were therefore viewed as flawed and discarded. Third, there is actual manipulation of the experiments and/or data, either consciously or unconsciously. Fourth, there is some small possibility of some crazy-cool, Dune-esque, Jedi stuff going on here that is someday going to completely revolutionize how we understand cognition, causation, and time.

Personally, my money is on some combination of options two and three. Even without any type of fraud going on, I think it is incredibly easy for us as scientists to be so convinced that we know what the outcome of an experiment is going to be, that we can massage things around the margins. Keep in mind that these effects are only a couple of percent. On the other hand, even the smallest possibility of number for justifies, to me, the entire institution of tenure. This is exactly the sort of nut-bag research program that you can only pursue if you have absolute job security. I wish that more tenured faculty pursued research like this.

What’s the Swedish internet made of?

So, if you’ve never played with Google Analytics, I highly recommend it. It is awesome. You can see who came to your website, where they came from, and what they were actually trying to find when they fell victim to your amateurish attempts at search engine optimization (“Sexy Megan Fox bikini pix!! Sexy Megan Fox bikini pix!!”). You can sort them by operating system, web browser, social security number, or alphabetically by password. It’s the second best way to waste huge amounts of time on your computer – the best if you work at a place with content filtering.

For example, last week, I got a hit from Georgia. Not the Coca Cola and Peaches one; the Stalin and fighting-with-Chechens one. This person got to the site by searching for “ჯონ ვილკინს” on Google, which I can only assume is Kartuli for “People’s 2010 rankings of the top 100 sexiest evolutionary biologists.” It’s an incredibly efficient language.

A couple of days ago, I got a hit from Sweden. Yes, the ABBA and Volvo one. In this case, the interesting thing was the service provider: “handelshogskolan.” Now, we know that the American internet is a series of tubes. Well, apparently so is the Swedish internet, but their tubes are made out of pig intestines. Sadly, that means that from now on, when I hand my e-mails to my hamster, Hedwig, and send her off, I’m going to have to mentally revisit that whole Richard Gere thing.

On evolution and sequels

So, there are a lot of things in evolution that seem like they are moving in one direction, when actually they are moving the opposite way. Or maybe it’s the other way around – I forget. For instance, one of the things that we know is that the vast majority of naturally occurring mutations are deleterious. That is, just like your crotchety old grandfather always said, children are, on average, a little bit worse than their parents (and the music they listen to is A LOT worse). Yet, somehow, evolution is able to maintain a level of function in the face of these deleterious mutations, and even to create new adaptations.

The reason is natural selection. Children will be worse than their parents on average, but there will be variation. Some will be a lot worse, and some only a little worse. Some may even be a bit better. The key is that the better children will, on average, produce more grandchildren than the worse children will (so your nagging mother was also right). It’s a bit like walking the wrong way on one of those people-movers at the airport.

Of course, there is also noise in the system. Sometimes a big rock falls on the “fittest” individual in a way that has little to do with that individual’s genotype. And sometimes an individual carrying a lot of deleterious mutations starts a polygamous cult and has about a hundred kids. But on average, the filtering effects of selection seem to counterbalance, or even outweigh the effect of those deleterious mutations.

This got me wondering if there was maybe something similar going on with movie sequels. The conventional wisdom in most quarters is the movie sequels suck. Sure, there is the occasional Godfather II, but for every one of those, it seems like there are a hundred films that are closer to Highlander II. So, I did a little study [1], in which I compared three classes of films: movies that got sequels, movies that are sequels, and random movies. Two scores from Rotten Tomatoes were collected for each movie: the “tomatometer” score, which is the percentage of reviews of the movie that were positive, and the user score, which is the average rating (out of 10) by users of the site.

The average scores are:

Movies with sequels: 59.2% positive 5.92 average (coincidence, or Illuminati plot?)
Movies that are sequels: 44.8% positive 5.16 average
Random movies: 45.7% positive 5.21 average

So, what’s our conclusion here? Well, it seems like sequels are, on average, pretty darn similar in quality to the random sample of movies. The outlier is the set of movies that get sequels made. So, maybe we think that sequels suck because we tend to mentally compare them with the originals, and, like our high-school sports careers, they fail to live up to expectations. Maybe sequels suck because movies suck, and a sequel is no more or less likely to suck than anything else. Or is there something about sequelness in itself?

We can drill a little deeper by dividing our movies into five quintiles (with ten movies each) based on the tomatometer scores of the originals:

Bottom quintile:
Movies with sequels: 17% positive 3.6 average
Sequels of movies: 15% positive 3.6 average

Second quintile:
Movies with sequels: 45% positive 5.2 average
Sequels of movies: 22% positive 4.0 average

Third quintile:
Movies with sequels: 58% positive 5.9 average
Sequels of movies: 49% positive 5.3 average

Fourth quintile:
Movies with sequels: 82% positive 7.0 average
Sequels of movies: 64% positive 6.1 average

Top quintile:
Movies with sequels: 94% positive 7.9 average
Sequels of movies: 74% positive 6.8 average

What this makes it look like is that there really is something about making a sequel that makes your movie suck more than the original. For the most part, you can expect a 15-20% drop in the number of favorable reviews going from the original to the sequel, even if the sequel was only average to begin with. The one exception is the bottom quintile, where you can expect your sequel to suck just about as much as the original did. This may be a boundary effect, as the average number of positive reviews is bounded at zero. This is the great thing about making “Baby Geniuses 2” is that it is virtually impossible to underperform “Baby Geniuses.” On the other hand, with a tomatometer score dropping from 2% to 0%, the baby geniuses somehow managed it.

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[1] Not-very-scientific study methodology:

In order to collect a sample of sequels, I went to Rotten Tomatoes, and searched for “2” and “II,” discarding anything that was obviously not a sequel, or for which there was no rating information available. This yielded a list of 50 movies, including “2 Fast 2 Furious,” but not “Aliens.” For each of these, I got the “tomatometer” score and the average user rating for that movie and for the movie of which it was the sequel.

For the random sample, I went to The Movie Insider, and used their list of January-June 2009 releases. I discarded anything that was a foreign film or documentary that had an initial release date prior to 2009. The rationale here was that if a documentary is shown at film festivals in 2007, and then gets a major theatrical release in 2009, this is not a random movie. It is a movie that has already undergone a fairly intense selection process. In the end, this list had 75 movies in it.

The study was not double-blind or vetted by anyone else, and undoubtedly contains errors in both transcription and judgment. However, hopefully it is close enough for analogic use.